Web3 is all about innovation and hype, so here are two conceptual models worth learning: Innovation S Curves and Gartner Hype Cycles.
When a new technology comes along, it creates enormous progress and enormous opportunities, often driven by just a few specific teams.
the quality of new projects > the quantity of total projects.
Everything connected to this tech then goes up, quite rapidly.
This is because it happens at multiple levels. So while a specific technology increases a specific performance, the entire ecosystem benefits:
When growth really starts taking off, copying becomes omnipresent. This is because once a successful trend has been identified, it’s easier to jump on the bandwagon than do anything new. This is especially true in crypto because most everything is open source.
quality of new projects < quantity of total projects.
Once the money machine takes over, there is no incentive for creativity.
In fact, it is literally disincentivized because people prefer to use what they already know. If you are a builder, then you can’t afford to waste time making something that might not work, when you know you can fork a successful project, and start marketing it straightaway. As I heard someone say recently: “move slow, die a fast death”.
Greed is a powerful motivator.
A slightly more detailed version of the S Curve model